NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures prices were down about 14 cents on November 5 to $5.58 per MMBtu for December delivery, $5.69 for January, and $5.56 for February. The decline came after late-season injections, which pushed inventories in the US South Central states to 1.172 Tcf, just 16 Bcf below the five-year average, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. Over the past eight weeks, injections to the South Central gas storage totalled 229 Bcf, about 60% above the five-year average.
Gas production from Texas and the US Southeast rose, which helped alleviate concern over winter season supply. The Permian Basin produced 13.9 Bcfd of gas in November, just slightly below its single-day record of 14 Bcfd in June. Output in Haynesville hit a fresh record at more than 14 Bcfd so far this month. Average nationwide gas production was around 93.5 Bcfd in November, the highest since March 2020.
At the same time, the US National Weather Service forecast a 40%-50% possibility of warmer-than-usual temperatures in Texas and the Southeast in December-February. Residential and commercial users typically use less gas for heating amid milder temperatures. However, the outlook for feedgas demand from LNG plants remains bullish, averaging at nearly 10.7 Bcfd so far in November.
