The US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) said that total consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels in the country would continue to recover in the remaining half of 2020 supported by the resumption of economic activity. However, US petroleum demand will unlikely exceed the 2019 average until August 2021.
US total liquid fuels supplied, a proxy for demand, reached its all-time monthly low in April at an average of 14.7 million bpd. Latest available weekly data showed petroleum product consumption has increased as many states have eased restrictions.
According to EIA, reduced motor gasoline use has contributed to nearly half of the decline in US liquid fuel demand in 2020. Motor gasoline consumption is forecast to fall to 8.3 million bpd this year, from 9.0 million bpd in 2019. In this year’s second half, gasoline consumption is expected to increase, in line with a forecast of improving employment rates. Gasoline demand will likely rise to 9.1 million bpd in 2021, about 2% lower than last year’s average.
Meanwhile, US jet fuel demand in 2020 is expected to decline by 31% from 2019, a more significant percentage decrease than gasoline (-10%) and distillate (-10%). US jet fuel consumption fell to about 660,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2020 and is estimated to rise to 1.4 million bpd in the fourth quarter of this year. EIA said US jet fuel demand would likely to increase to an average of 1.5 million bpd next year, about 12% below the 2019 average.
